Free MLB picks through the MLB season up to the World Series! Our picks are graded on a scale of 2-5 units. The 4 and 5 unit plays are our BEST BETS, and indicate games that we’re on. 3 unit plays we have moderate faith in, and 2 units is just a lean.
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July 1, 2025
NY YANKEES vs TORONTO BLUEJAYS
PICK: YANKEES -1.5 +105
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
FIRST PITCH: 3:30 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: FRIED v GAUSMAN
RESULT:
If it were not for Tarik Skubal, Max Fried would be the hands-down Cy Young for the American League. He has been nothing short of dominant and consistently winning games for the Yankees, even when their bats go cold.
Kevin Gausman hasn’t enjoyed the consistent success that he had in 2024, providing some questionable outings in the first half of this 2025 campaign. In his April start vs the Yankees, Gausman allowed 6 runs over 2.2 innings. In fact, if you review the game logs for KG, you’ll see that any team that has a top-half offense has shelled him and chased him before the end of the 5th inning. Conversely, Fried faced the Jays in April and threw 6 innings, while allowing 0 earned runs.
Aaron Judge has leveled Gausman in their matchups, with 6 homers and 12 RBI in 41 at-bats, with a .341 BA. Paul Goldschmidt, while not as many faceoffs with Gausman, has hammered him for a BA of .538.
Injury notes. The Jays are without Bo Bichette and Daulton Varsho, Bichette being a massive loss for their offense. Anthony Santander remains on the IL as well, though hasn’t provided much offense for Toronto. The Yankees are without Austin Wells or Trent Grisham for today’s game, but Giancarlo Stanton is back in pinstripes.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs TEXAS RANGERS
PICK: TEXAS FIRST 5 innings -0.5 -120
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
RESULT:
FIRST PITCH: 8:05 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: YOUNG v deGROM
Jacob deGrom’s return this season has been sparkling clean and ultra consistent. The guy is complete money this season, with a record of 8-2 and 2.08 ERA with a WHIP of just 0.88. That is less than half the WHIP and ERA of his opposing starter, Brandon Young.
deGrom stymied the O’s last week, allowing a single hit and zero runs through 7 frames. In his 2 losses, he only allowed a combined 3 runs, as it was the Rangers’ offensive woes that should get the blame. Young faced the Rangers in the same game that saw deGrom throw a gem, where Young surrendered 4 runs in 4 innings of work.
We’re betting on a repeat of last week’s history here, and getting a decent payout for a modest risk. You could alt it up to -1.5 runs and go for the plus money, but the obviously safer call is to go for the simple single run lead gets paid.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs LA DODGERS
PICK: DODGERS TEAM TOTAL OV 5.5 +105
PICK: DODGERS FIRST 5 INNINGS -0.5 -175
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
FIRST PITCH: 10:10 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: SMITH v YAMAMOTO
RESULT:
There are several options to play this game, but I’m tacking it onto the other 2 plays as a parlay. I will also play a straight with the Dodgers team total OVER 5.5 at +105. If wanting to go the SGP route, players to look at include Ohtani, Freeman, and Max Muncy for 2+ bases or RBI options.
Smith has allowed 12 runs and 8 walks over his last 12 innings pitched, getting hammered in starts versus the Cards and Dbacks, with his last outing being quite good…though it was against a Houston Astros team that is in the bottom half of the league in runs scored. Yamamoto has been a bit of a crapshoot in 2025, but his last couple of outings were quite good, with his last start at Coors field – surrendering a single hit over 5 scoreless innings.
The White Sox are also dealing with some injury woes, with Luis Robert Jr on IL, leaving Andrew Benintendi as the sole offensive threat. Take all of that, then add in the fact that the Dodgers lead the majors in Runs Scored, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR…while the Southsiders are in the bottom 3 of all of those categories, and you have a recipe for wins with several different betting options.
2025 SEASON RECORD
OVERALL 28-14
BEST BETS 15-7
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