Free MLB picks through the MLB season up to the World Series! Our picks are graded on a scale of 2-5 units. The 4 and 5 unit plays are our BEST BETS, and indicate games that we’re on. 3 unit plays we have moderate faith in, and 2 units is just a lean.
FREE MLB PICKS
July 8, 2025
NY METS vs BALTIMORE ORIOLES
PICK: METS ML -125
PICK: METS FIRST 5 INNINGS -0.5 -110
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
FIRST PITCH: 6:35 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: HOLMES (RHP) v YOUNG (RHP)
RESULT:
The line for tonight’s Mets-Orioles game is surprisingly close, especially given the significant pitching mismatch. Clay Holmes (NYM: 8-4, 2.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) is a far more reliable starter than Brandon Young (BAL: 0-3, 7.02 ERA, 1.98 WHIP).
Young has been consistently ineffective, failing to complete five innings in any of his four starts and giving up at least three runs in each. Holmes, conversely, has been solid, surrendering 3 or fewer earned runs in his last five outings, with three of those being single-run efforts. The betting market seems to be ignoring Young’s high WHIP and inability to pitch deep, which immediately pressures Baltimore’s bullpen (4.50 ERA, 25th in MLB). The Mets’ bullpen (3.83 ERA, 13th in MLB) is significantly better.
Given these dynamics, the Mets First Five Innings (F5) -0.5 at -105 is the most appealing bet, effectively neutralizing the bullpens. However, since Baltimore’s bullpen is a clear disadvantage, we’re also taking the full game Moneyline. For those building a parlay, the Mets -1.5 at +125 offers excellent value.
ATLANTA BRAVES vs ATHLETICS
PICK: OVER 10.0 -120
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
FIRST PITCH: 10:05 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: FUENTES (RHP) v SPRINGS (LHP)
RESULT:
Tonight at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, a high-scoring game is highly probable, with the game total now set at 10.0 runs. The conditions are ideal for offense: it’s a clear and hot night (29°C, feels like 30°C), with a 14 km/h wind blowing from the south, which will likely aid batted balls. Baseball Savant’s 2025 park factors show Sutter Health Park with a RUNS factor of 125, significantly favoring scoring.
For the Athletics, Jeffrey Springs (6-6, 4.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) takes the mound. While generally decent, he’s facing an environment that amplifies mistakes. The A’s have been incredibly generous with runs at home, allowing 279 runs this season (second in MLB only to Colorado) and a league-leading 135 home runs. Their average home game already sees an elevated 10.5 total runs scored.
The Atlanta Braves counter with Didier Fuentes (0-2, 9.00 ERA, 1.83 WHIP in 3 MLB starts). Fuentes has struggled immensely in his brief MLB career, consistently failing to pitch deep into games and yielding significant offense. While Atlanta’s offense (39-50 record, 24th in MLB in runs scored) hasn’t been as potent as previous seasons, facing a struggling rookie in a hitter-friendly environment could be the catalyst they need.
The combination of a hitter’s paradise ballpark, favorable winds, Springs’ moderate form, and Fuentes’ significant struggles points squarely to the Game Total OVER 10.0 runs.
OTHER PLAYS
TORONTO BLUEJAYS vs CHICAGO WHITE SOX
PICK: JAYS -1.5 (-120)
UNITS: 3
FIRST PITCH: 7:40 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: BASSITT (RHP) v CIVALE (RHP)
RESULT:
CHICAGO CUBS vs MINNESOTA TWINS
PICK: CUBS -1.5 (+125)
UNITS: 3
FIRST PITCH: 7:40 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: IMANAGA (LHP) v RICHARDSON (RHP)
RESULT:
2025 SEASON RECORD
OVERALL 33-15
BEST BETS 20-8
All picks and advice are provided for recreational and entertainment purposes and are not to be construed as financial advice. You decide what to do with the information provided. Users assume all responsibilities for their actions. If your gambling activities are no longer fun or you’re concerned with your habits, please seek assistance. In Ontario, you can receive help here.
