Free MLB picks through the MLB season up to the World Series! Our picks are graded on a scale of 2-5 units. The 4 and 5 unit plays are our BEST BETS, and indicate games that we’re on. 3 unit plays we have moderate faith in, and 2 units is just a lean.
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June 30, 2025
SAN DIEGO PADRES vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
PICK: PHILLIES FIRST 5 INNINGS -1.5 +125
UNITS: 3
FIRST PITCH: 6:30 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: WALDRON v WHEELER
RESULT:
Matt Waldron is set to make his return to the MLB rotation, but he’s immediately thrown into the deep end, facing the Philadelphia Phillies, who currently stand as one of the top teams in the entire league with a record of 49-35 (.583 winning percentage).
While the Phillies’ bullpen has shown some shakiness with a collective ERA of 4.52 (which ranks 7th worst among MLB teams that have played at least 80 games as of June 30, 2025), we’re going to mitigate that variable by focusing specifically on the first five innings (F5) line. This puts increased pressure on the San Diego Padres’ offense to generate early runs against Philadelphia’s starting pitcher, and on Waldron to limit the damage.That early run-scoring shouldn’t be too much of an issue, considering Matt Waldron’s past major league performances in 2024. In 27 appearances (26 starts) last season, he posted a concerning 4.91 ERA over 146.2 innings pitched. Furthermore, his recent rehab outings at Triple-A El Paso, where he’s been building up arm strength after an oblique strain, have not been encouraging. Across 22.1 innings in Triple-A, he owns a 5.24 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP, indicating he’s continued to give up runs and baserunners at a high rate. The combination of a top-tier Phillies offense and Waldron’s struggles, both in the majors last year and in his rehab, makes early offense against him a strong play.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs PITTSBURGH PIRATES
PICK: CARDS ML -110
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
RESULT:
FIRST PITCH: 6:40 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: FEDDE v HEANEY
Tonight, when Erick Fedde (currently 3-7 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 16 starts) takes the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals (47-38 overall record) against the Pittsburgh Pirates (35-50 overall record), the smart money is squarely on the Cardinals. The Cardinals getting -110 on the moneyline offers significant value, as oddsmakers appear to be putting too much stock in Pittsburgh’s recent offensive outburst against the New York Mets this past weekend.
Despite that brief surge, where they put up a combined 30 runs in their last three games against the Mets (9-1, 9-2, 12-1 victories), the Pittsburgh Pirates remain a struggling offensive team overall. They carry a paltry .232 team batting average on the season (24th in MLB as of June 30, 2025) and have hit just 60 home runs (29th in MLB). While they showed life against the Mets, their season-long performance, especially against right-handed pitching like Fedde, is consistently underwhelming.
More critically, while Erick Fedde has struggledrecently giving up 7 earned runs in 3.2 innings against the Cubs on June 26, his historical performance against the Pirates and at PNC Park provides a strong counter-narrative. He boasts a career 2.05 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates and an even better 1.64 ERA at PNC Park. In fact, in his last start against the Pirates on April 9th, Fedde threw an impressive six no-hit innings. Looking back at his poor outing versus the Cubs, one of MLB’s best offensive teams, it is key to note that it was a hot/humid day with the wind blowing strongly to the outfield…a game where we cashed the OVER as a Best Bet. 😉
The Bucs can’t win with Skenes on the mound, and they have consistently struggled to even be competitive with Heaney throwing. Take the Cards.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs SEATTLE MARINERS
PICK: ROYALS FIRST 5 INNINGS +0.5 -118
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
FIRST PITCH: 9:40 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: WACHA v KIRBY
RESULT:
We’re not looking for a grand slam here, just a solid base hit with our play: a tie or a Kansas City Royals lead through the first five innings (F5). Tonight’s matchup between the Kansas City Royals (39-45, 4th in AL Central) and the Seattle Mariners (43-40, 2nd in AL West) projects to be a genuinely low-scoring affair, with the current total set around 7.0 runs, signaling an expectation of limited offense.
On the mound for the Royals is Michael Wacha (4-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 16 starts). Wacha has historically performed well against Mariners batters. While he has yet to face the Mariners in 2025, his overall numbers this season are solid. In his lone contest against Seattle last season, he secured a victory, demonstrating his ability to stifle their lineup.
Conversely, for the Seattle Mariners, George Kirby (1-4, 5.40 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in 7 starts) takes the hill. While Kirby is generally regarded as a promising young arm, he has shown some surprising vulnerability this season, indicated by his elevated ERA. Crucially, he has struggled with certain Royals hitters in their limited matchups. Most notably, Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals’ star shortstop, has a scorching .444 career batting average (4-for-9) against Kirby with a double. This kind of individual matchup can significantly swing the momentum in the early frames, especially in a low-scoring game.
Our focus on the F5 ensures we’re banking on Wacha’s early-game effectiveness and Kirby’s early-game vulnerability, particularly against a dangerous hitter like Witt Jr. We’re avoiding the volatility that can often come from later-inning bullpen matchups, making this a calculated play for early advantage.
2025 SEASON RECORD
OVERALL 27-12
BEST BETS 15-5
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